London’s Black Cabs: Why Driver Numbers Are Plummeting and What’s at Stake

Black Cabs at Risk of Disappearing by 2040

London’s black cabs are facing a critical moment, with experts warning the iconic taxis could vanish by 2040. A steep decline in driver numbers has left the industry in turmoil, dropping by over a third in the past decade. As of November 2024, only 16,965 licensed black cab drivers remain, compared to a peak of 25,538 in 2014.

Several factors contribute to this downturn: high costs associated with transitioning to electric vehicles, an ageing driver population, and restrictive transport policies implemented across the city.
Steve McNamara, the head of the Licensed Taxi Driver’s Association, commented:

"Drivers cite an increasingly difficult working environment, with low-traffic neighbourhoods, new cycle lanes, and 20mph speed limits complicating navigation."

Ageing Workforce and Fewer Newcomers

A significant proportion of London’s black cab drivers are nearing retirement, with 62% aged 53 or older. Younger generations are reluctant to enter the profession due to the high financial barriers. Despite the enduring appeal of "The Knowledge," the rigorous street-memorization test required to qualify as a cabbie, it has not attracted enough new drivers to offset retirements.

A veteran cabbie remarked:

"I’m in my 60s and don’t plan on shelling out £80,000. I haven’t got an issue with electric, but I won’t be doing that."

Challenges Posed by Electric Transition

London’s green policies mandate that all diesel taxis retire after 12 years, effectively removing older vehicles from service even if they remain operational. New electric black cabs cost up to £80,000 or £100,000 with financing, making the transition unaffordable for part-time or soon-to-retire drivers.

Past government grants of up to £10,000 to encourage the switch have ended, leaving many drivers without support. While 60% of black cabs in London are now zero-emission vehicles, the financial burden deters full compliance.

The Impact of Policy on Daily Operations

Drivers describe navigating London as more stressful and complicated than ever due to a growing number of low-traffic neighbourhoods, cycle lanes, and strict speed limits. Steve McNamara, leader of the Licensed Taxi Driver’s Association, criticized these policies for making the city "virtually impossible" for cabbies to operate efficiently.

McNamara noted:

"They’ve built a road network for white middle-class men using cycle lanes to the detriment of the majority of Londoners."

Economic Effects: Earnings and Fare Increases

Ironically, the decline in driver numbers has boosted earnings for those who remain. With fewer black cabs available, demand has pushed driver incomes as high as £100,000 per year.

However, fares have risen substantially, with Transport for London (TfL) planning another 7.5% increase in 2025, following hikes totaling over 15% since 2022. While rising costs haven’t deterred passengers yet, concerns are growing about affordability and competition with private hire vehicles.

Cabbie Tom Hutley warned:

"If it takes twice as long and costs £15 instead of £10, people might choose a different option next time."

Competition with Private Hire Vehicles

Private hire vehicles, such as Uber, were once a cheaper alternative to black cabs. Now, surge pricing and inflation have narrowed the gap, making black cabs more competitive. Many passengers prefer regulated tariffs provided by metered taxis over fluctuating private hire rates.

McNamara emphasized:

"We’re no longer necessarily more expensive than Uber."

Government and TfL Interventions

Transport for London has introduced measures to support the industry, including funding for greener vehicles, improving taxi ranks, and allowing black cabs more access to bus lanes. However, many drivers believe these efforts fall short of addressing the root issues threatening their livelihoods.

Neil Garratt of the London Assembly urged immediate action, stating that black cabs are “at a crossroads.” He emphasized their importance as a vital means of transport and the Mayor’s responsibility to ensure their survival.

TfL’s Graham Robinson assured:

"A revised action plan is in progress to support hardworking drivers," but critics worry these measures may come too late.