Waymo Leads Robotaxi Market as Tesla Struggles to Compete

Waymo's Lead in Autonomous Ride-Hailing as Tesla Lags Behind

Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous vehicle subsidiary, continues to maintain its dominance in the self-driving taxi industry. Despite Tesla's ambitious efforts to enter the market, experts argue that the electric vehicle giant remains far from competing with Waymo’s well-established autonomous ride-hailing services. Recent developments, including Tesla’s plans to launch its robotaxi and Optimus robot production in 2025, indicate the company's ongoing push towards autonomy. However, industry experts remain skeptical about its approach.

Former Waymo CEO John Krafcik, who led the company until 2021, has been vocal in dismissing Tesla’s progress in the robotaxi sector. He has repeatedly stated that Tesla's self-driving technology is merely an advanced driver-assistance system rather than a fully autonomous solution.

Krafcik stated:

"Tesla has aspired to compete with Waymo for nearly 10 years, but they still don't. They're a car company with a driver-assist system. They haven't delivered a single fully autonomous revenue-generating ride yet, something Waymo is already doing a million times a month."

Tesla introduced its robotaxi prototype, the Cybercab, in 2024. The vehicle, a low-profile two-seater without a steering wheel, was presented as a step towards the company’s vision of fully autonomous transportation. However, Krafcik and other industry experts were unimpressed.

Krafcik told Business Insider:

"If a company were serious about building a safe and accessible Robotaxi business, it would look nothing like what was shown."

A core point of contention in the autonomous vehicle (AV) industry is the role of lidar technology. Companies like Waymo rely on a combination of lidar, radar, and cameras to ensure safety and accuracy in navigation. Tesla, on the other hand, relies solely on cameras, a decision that has sparked debate among industry leaders. Krafcik argues that Tesla’s approach is flawed, both in terms of cost and safety.

Krafcik wrote:

"The cost of a robust sensor set, including lidar, is trivial on a per-mile basis. Even more so for mapping. And the safety benefits measured in human harm reduction are real and verifiable."

Tesla has not yet responded to these criticisms.

While Tesla struggles to establish a functioning robotaxi service, Waymo continues to expand. The company is currently providing over 200,000 autonomous rides per week across Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco. It has also begun limited testing in Tokyo, signaling its intent to grow internationally.

Other players in the AV space, such as Baidu’s Apollo Go and Amazon’s Zoox, are also developing their own robotaxi services. Baidu reported 1.1 million rides in China during the fourth quarter of 2024, while Zoox is still in the testing phase in San Francisco and Las Vegas. Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised that fully autonomous Tesla rides will be operational in Austin by June.

Despite increasing competition, Krafcik remains confident that Waymo will continue to lead the industry.

Krafcik stated:

"At the moment, Waymo has no competition. They are the only company in the world successfully deploying an embodied AI replacement for a licensed human driver that can be integrated into any vehicle — and doing this at scale with third-party data verifying significant performance and safety advantages over human drivers."

Industry analysts speculate that Waymo may eventually separate from Alphabet and go public. According to Deepwater Asset Management, Waymo could be valued between $350 billion and $850 billion by 2030. Krafcik, however, sees no urgency in such a move.

Krafcik stated:

"Waymo has a deep, smart group of patient investors. There's no rush — they're not like the other wanna-be-AV companies tapping public markets to get quick cash to survive. Most of these companies don't have the technology to deliver their promises and will fail."

While the robotaxi market is evolving, Waymo's strong market presence and established infrastructure continue to set it apart from competitors. As the industry grows, the debate over the best approach to autonomous driving remains a key point of discussion.